Night research: intelligent manufacturing 2025 trend is unstoppable?

Release time:

2016-08-05

Replacing traditional manpower with robots, artificial intelligence intelligent workshop will be the future trend of China and even the world within 10 years.

The picture below shows Tesla's modern unmanned factory, which is basically a brand-new robot arm to complete almost all the manufacturing procedures of a Tesla,

I think replacing traditional manpower with robots and intelligent workshops with artificial intelligence will be the trend in China and even the world in the next 10 years. The main reasons are:

1. Global robot artificial intelligence technology is becoming more and more mature.

Like the large-scale popularization of computers, there is no possibility of implementation without the gradual maturity of technology. We can see that Foxconn has also promoted the grand plan of replacing workers with millions of robots before. Now most automakers and factories are all kinds of robotic arms, and fewer workers are managed.

The new Apple phone not only has a large order volume, but its production line is also longer. A MacBook requires only 50 people for all assembly procedures, an iPad requires more than 300 people, and the iPhone6 process requires at least 500 people. Foxconn needs more workers and more robots.

In 2011, Gou Taiming launched a robot plan on several occasions to improve Foxconn's production line with one million robots within three years. But three years later, Foxconn has not realized this plan.

Robot strategy is a transformation opportunity for Foxconn and manufacturing industry. It is the road is very bumpy, it is difficult but can not refuse. Foxconn has made a good gesture and taken steps. In its workshops and assembly lines, you will realize what will happen in the future. However, limited by its dependence on the demographic dividend and the huge cost of robots, Foxconn has found much more problems than experience.

2, the end of the demographic dividend, the inevitable choice of a sharp rise in labor costs.The main reason why the products made in China can dominate the world for a long time is that they are of high quality and low price, but at the beginning, they are mainly low price. The fundamental reason for the low price is that the labor cost is too low. In the 1990 s, a lighter produced in Wenzhou was sold for one yuan, and a worker's monthly salary was only a few hundred yuan. However, more than 20 years later, the wages of workers have increased by more than ten times. It is estimated that they will not be available for more than 5,000 yuan, but the lighter is still sold for 2 yuan. Foxconn and other companies quickly realized that if they don't use it againRobotInstead of part of the repetitive work, the future is simply impossible to live.

Not only is the labor force expensive now, but you can no longer recruit skilled people who are willing to do simple and repetitive physical work. In the future, China's population structure will gradually age, and they have generally gone to college. They don't like simple and repetitive work at all. The disappearance of the demographic dividend and the loss of the working population are the fundamental reasons why many enterprises must make up their minds to do smart factories. If competitors seize the opportunity of smart factories, they will be very passive.

3. Advances in technology have led to lower robot costs and promoted larger-scale promotion:

Many enterprises know that intelligent production line is very good, but the cost is too high. I don't know the specific price. I heard before that an intelligent production line costs hundreds of millions, but now it only costs tens of millions. Moreover, many banks are willing to lend money, but the actual contribution is relatively small. Cost reduction leads to more and more manufacturers using intelligent production lines, and the scale effect caused by more and more users further reduces costs, which is a benign development trend. In fact, it is also a bit like Moore's Law in integrated circuits.

I personally think that the next ten years must be artificial intelligence, mechanical arm robot to replace the tedious repetitive work of the era. Robots fully into our daily life, sweeping robot, washing dishes robot, cooking robot, and even robot lover, war robot.

Robots have these benefits:

Tireless, can work 24 hours as long as it is not damaged. This is much better than people. People need emotional maintenance, especially young employees born in the 90 s. Resigning if they don't agree has a great impact on the company.
Can strictly follow the procedures to complete the assigned tasks, want it to do what you want. In recent years, it is unlikely to see robots that can learn like humans, and they mainly follow specific procedures to complete tasks. Once robots can learn, they should learn much faster than humans, and that's a bit too scary. Schwarzenegger's Terminator is pretty scary.
No salary, no tax, no insurance, just give him some rest to prevent too much heat and lubricating fluid, and the programming is done. HR no longer needs to worry about finding employees and employee benefits.

The advent of the robot era pays tribute to the factory girls who are about to go away.

Musk's great vision Tesla super factory stunned everyone!